Inflation Just Went Down To 3.4%. But Is The Government Really Behind This Welcome Decline?
With the announcement that UK inflation has fallen from 4% to 3.4%, its lowest point since 2021, many are breathing a sigh of relief. This measure, indicating how much prices for goods and services have risen over the last 12 months, shows a positive trend towards a slower rate of price increase. But, eyebrows raise at the claim that governmental policies are directly responsible for this decline.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), February’s inflation rate marked the most significant drop in almost two and a half years. The main contributors to this decrease were food prices, which remained nearly unchanged from last year compared to a substantial previous rise, alongside a slowdown in the cost inflation of restaurants and cafes. Despite this decrease, it’s important to note that the UK still holds the highest inflation rate among the G7 countries.
The question arises: Is the government directly responsible for managing inflation? Technically, no. The government sets the inflation target at 2% but does not directly control it. Nonetheless, Jeremy Hunt, in celebrating the recent figures, stated they reflected the success of the government’s plan, attributing the improvement to the “difficult decisions” taken over the past year. This claim contrasts sharply with the government’s stance during the inflation peak of 11.1% in October 2022, which was attributed to global factors such as Covid recovery challenges and the impact of the Ukraine war on energy supplies.
However, the Independent Fiscal Standards (IFS) director, Paul Johnson, highlighted that control over inflation primarily lies with the Bank of England, deeming it “inappropriate” for the government to claim credit for its decline. Indeed, while the government’s fiscal policies can influence economic conditions, they are not the primary tools for managing inflation rates.
The Bank of England, as an independent entity, plays a pivotal role in inflation control through its management of interest rates. Since August 2023, the Bank has held the interest rate steady at 5.25%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. With an interest rate announcement looming from the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, expectations are high for maintaining the current rate, albeit with speculation about possible rate reductions in the upcoming summer.
The prospect of cheaper gas and electricity, together with modest economic growth (evidenced by a 0.2% growth in January after a technical recession in the latter half of 2022), promises further assistance towards curbing inflation. With the Office for National Statistics set to release March’s inflation data soon, all eyes are on whether these positive trends will continue, providing some financial respite for consumers across the UK.
While the government’s fiscal strategies may impact the economic environment in which inflation operates, it’s clear that the Bank of England’s policies on interest rates remain the linchpin in the ongoing battle against high inflation. As the UK tentatively moves towards lower inflation rates, the interplay between government decisions and independent monetary policy will undoubtedly remain under scrutiny.
