David Robinson: It’s steady as she goes for the Buffalo Niagara job market
The Buffalo Niagara job market continues its steady march towards recovery, inching closer to recouping the positions lost during the COVID-19 recession. With a net gain of 700 jobs in February, the local employment landscape is expanding at a consistent, albeit not spectacular, rate of 2% on an annualized basis over the past year, according to the latest figures from the state Labor Department.
However, challenges are on the horizon. The area’s unemployment rate has been on a gradual rise since last summer—it climbed from a modern low of 3.3% in July to 4.1% by January, marking the highest level seen since October 2021. Moreover, the region’s workforce has plateaued, showing little to no growth since September on a seasonally adjusted basis. This stagnation is of particular concern amid reports from local employers struggling to find adequately skilled workers who are also willing to accept the wages on offer.
These indicators collectively sketch a portrait of a job market that, while fundamentally robust, encounters barriers inhibiting more dynamic growth.
This current state unfolds against the backdrop of a national economy facing its own set of challenges, notably the Federal Reserve Board’s concerted efforts to address persistently high inflation rates. The anticipation of interest rate cuts, which would serve as a stimulus, has been delayed as a result.
In light of these conditions, Buffalo Niagara’s employers are proceeding with caution, continuing their slow and steady hiring practices. Should this trend persist, the region is poised to recapture all pandemic-era job losses by the latter part of the year—a milestone the U.S. as a whole reached in the summer of 2022.
Local economists, while noting the recovery’s positive trajectory, anticipate a potential acceleration in hiring as the seasons change. “We’re slowly on the road to fully recover all of the pandemic job losses,” observed Canisius University economist Julie Anna Golebiewski, who remains hopeful for an uptick in hiring activity during the warmer months.
However, a survey from the Siena Research Institute casts a shadow of muted optimism among Western New York executives, with only a fraction expecting increases in profits, sales, or staffing levels this year. This sentiment is largely attributed to the persistent lack of qualified workers, a concern echoed across various sectors.
A contrasting picture emerges from the service industry, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey, which paints a more optimistic outlook for business growth and employment in the coming months. This sector’s resilience is particularly significant, given its dominance in the region’s economy.
The disconnected expectations between employers and job seekers, hinted at by both surveys, point to underlying issues such as skills mismatches and wage expectations—challenges that the region must navigate to sustain its recovery momentum.
The latest jobs report, incorporating revised data from the Labor Department, underscores the vitality of leisure and hospitality, education, and government sectors in driving job growth, despite weaknesses in professional services and retail. This ongoing resilience underscores the fundamental health of the local job market, even amidst broader economic uncertainties.
As the Buffalo Niagara region forges ahead, the continued positive trajectory of job growth, no matter how gradual, remains a beacon of economic stability and potential for the area’s future.
