Short Sellers’ Activity Surges in US Stocks, Goldman Data Show – BNN Bloomberg
In recent developments from Goldman Sachs Inc., data reveals a notable upswing in short selling activities across US-listed stocks, marking the highest level observed in the past six months. Notably, companies within the technology, telecom, and media (TMT) sectors appear to be the primary targets for short sellers.
This uptick in short selling activity follows a robust 9% increase in the S&P 500 during the first quarter, which also saw the most record closing highs since the year 2017. These movements suggest that certain hedge funds, particularly those employing long-short equity strategies, are beginning to counteract the recent stock market rally.
According to a detailed note by Cullen Morgan, a flow and derivatives specialist, “Single stocks saw the largest notional short selling in six months.” He explained, “US TMT stocks collectively made up about 75% of this week’s notional net selling in all US single stocks, driven almost entirely by short sales.”
The compiled prime brokerage data from Goldman reveals that TMT stocks now account for 29.1% of the total US single stock net exposure. This is a decrease from the year’s peak of 32.5% observed in mid-February. The decline in net exposure to TMT stocks highlights the shifting sentiment amongst investors, likely due to the evolving economic landscape and monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
The resilience of the economy, along with less dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, has tempered expectations that the central bank may commence rate cuts in June. Such a scenario poses a significant risk to the valuations within the technology sector, which is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.
Moreover, Morgan highlighted an increase in overall prime book net selling, the most substantial in five weeks, as trading activity escalated for the 12th consecutive week. This was primarily fueled by a dominance of short sales in single stocks over long buys in macro products, with a ratio of 1.6 to 1. This surge in trading activity underscores the growing caution among investors as they navigate through the current investment landscape.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 has experienced a maximum drawdown—or decrease from the market peak—of just 1.7% this year, representing a record low. However, the heightened short-selling activity could be a precursor to more significant market adjustments should the bullish sentiment wane.
Focusing on systematic trading strategies, specifically those known as trend-following strategies or CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors), the data indicates an estimated $165 billion in long positions in global equities. This level of exposure sits at the 100th percentile in terms of historical data. In the event of a market downturn over the next month, these funds might be compelled to offload up to $141 billion worth of stocks, according to Goldman’s estimates. Such potential large-scale sell-offs underscore the delicate balance in the current stock market and the pivotal role played by systematic and discretionary trading strategies.
The increase in short-selling among US-listed stocks, especially within the technology, telecom, and media sectors, points to a growing skepticism among investors towards the sustainability of the recent market rally. As such, market participants and observers alike will be closely watching these developments, considering their potential impact on future market dynamics.
