Philippines Tweaks 2024 GDP Growth Target, Revises Outlook for 2025-2028
The Philippines has recently adjusted its economic growth target for 2024, narrowing the growth range to 6.0% to 6.5%. This revision comes as a shift from the previous upper limit of 7%, prompted by a mix of domestic challenges and external uncertainties, as stated by a government panel.
Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, during a news conference, emphasized the unpredictability facing global economies. He noted that while global events might present obstacles for the Philippines, policies like those of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, particularly on tariffs, could sway the economic trajectory in various ways.
Finance Secretary Ralph Recto added that despite the revised target, the Philippines is still poised to achieve a realistic growth rate of 6.0% for the current year.
Additionally, the Philippines has adjusted its growth expectations for the years 2025 through 2028. The new range is set between 6.0% and 8.0%, an update from the earlier projections made in June this year, which were 6.5% to 7.5% for 2025 and 6.5% to 8.0% for 2026-2028. This broadening reflects the dynamic nature of both domestic and global uncertainties.
The current six-year term of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to conclude in 2028, a year by which the Philippines hopes to have navigated these economic uncertainties.
Recent performance statistics indicate the Philippine economy expanded by 5.2% in the third quarter, marking its most sluggish growth in over a year. This slowdown was attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting government expenditure and agricultural productivity, reducing the overall growth for the year to 5.8%.
The forecast for the Philippine peso has been adjusted, with expectations for it to average between 57 to 57.50 against the dollar in 2024. This contrasts with the previous assumption of 56 to 58. For 2025, projections have been altered to 56 to 58 per dollar, whereas for 2026 to 2028, the forecast remains stable at 55 to 58.
Despite recent pressures on the peso, which closed at 58.655 per dollar, central bank Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila suggested that there remains potential for the peso to stabilize over the medium term.
Regarding inflation, the interagency panel has revised its expectations for 2024, setting an estimate between 3.1% to 3.3%, slightly adjusted from the earlier range of 3.0% to 4.0%. For the years 2025 to 2028, the inflation expectation remains within the 2.0% to 4.0% band.
These adjustments underscore the Filipino government’s responsive strategies to manage shifting economic conditions, bearing in mind both local and international influences that could affect the nation’s economic stability and growth in the coming years.
