Municipal-Bond Investors Seek Yields Before Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts
Following a two-year period of skepticism and withdrawal, investors are once again flocking to the municipal-bond market, attracted by the prospect of securing higher yields before expected rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Record inflows have been observed, with muni-bond funds witnessing an influx of $1.5 billion in the last week of January alone, marking a turning point after substantial outflows totaling over $120 billion in the previous years. Fueled by the allure of higher yields, investment forecasts from industry giants like Parametric Portfolio Associates and Bank of America Corp. hint at a positive trend for the year ahead.
As 2024 approaches, experts predict substantial gains, with Parametric’s Brian Barney estimating inflows to reach the $40 billion mark, driven by a combination of attractive municipal rates and a widespread fear of missing out. This sentiment shift, particularly notable since mid-November, has seen significant participation from individual investors, who make up the largest share of the muni market.
The timely return of these investors has not only offset previous losses but has propelled the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index to a 6.4% return for the year. Even though Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has recently downplayed the likelihood of a rate cut in March, market predictions from economists at Bank of America and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now anticipate adjustments as early as the second quarter.
This optimistic outlook has triggered a muni market rally, with yields dropping significantly across the board. Despite a minor setback on Friday, this week’s rally ranks as one of the most significant since December. The surge in demand is set against a backdrop of limited new muni supply, with investors quickly deploying their January principal and interest payments into the market.
Experts like Eve Lando of Thornburg Investment Management, overseeing $6 billion in muni assets, recognize January’s strong demand, potentially pushing inflows to align more closely with the 10-year January average of $6 billion. Lando expects continued interest as investors anticipate rate stabilizations or reductions by May.
As the municipal-bond market gains momentum, investors remain keen on capturing beneficial yields before anticipated shifts in the interest rate landscape.
