El Nino Waning, La Nina to Develop in Second Half of 2024
In a significant turn of meteorological events, the current El Nino weather pattern, notorious for its contribution to abnormally hot and dry conditions across various regions, is expected to relent, giving way to La Nina in the latter half of 2024. The announcement comes from the U.S. government’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), forecasting a pivotal shift in climate conditions that could have wide-reaching implications on agriculture and water resources globally.
La Nina, defined by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, often orchestrates a dramatic rearrangement of weather patterns across the globe. For countries like Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, this could mean a boon of higher precipitation. Conversely, the Americas, known for their production of grains and oilseeds, may face drier weather conditions, posing challenges for agricultural productivity.
According to the CPC, the possibility of transitioning to neutral conditions is high in the April-June 2024 timespan, with a 55% chance that La Nina conditions will fully develop between June and August. This anticipated shift follows a strong El Nino phase, which historically, is often succeeded by La Nina events. Such transitions are crucial influencers of global weather dynamics, affecting everything from agricultural output to water availability.
The effects of El Nino have been particularly pronounced, with Asia experiencing severe heat and dryness, while parts of the Americas were hit with heavier than usual rainfall. The shift towards La Nina could reverse some of these patterns, offering relief to some areas while presenting new challenges to others. “La Nina is likely to affect the production of wheat and corn in the US, and soybean and corn in Latin America, including Brazil,” explained Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI.
The repercussions of such climatic fluctuations were starkly evident last year. For instance, India, the leading supplier of rice globally, imposed restrictions on rice exports due to a below-par monsoon season. Similarly, Australia’s wheat production suffered, and Southeast Asia’s palm oil plantations and rice farms received scant rainfall, further underscoring the profound impact these weather patterns can wield on global food security.
However, the emergence of La Nina might herald a silver lining for regions like India, where the seasonal monsoon rains are a lifeline for the agriculture-dependent economy. “The development of La Nina is beneficial for the Indian monsoon. Typically, the monsoon delivers abundant rainfall during La Nina years,” remarked an official from the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon season, spanning June to September, is critical, bringing nearly 70% of the annual rainfall necessary for irrigating crops and replenishing the country’s reservoirs and aquifers.
As the world cautiously watches the waning of El Nino and the anticipated arrival of La Nina, the implications of this predictable yet ever-surprising cycle of climate patterns continue to be a subject of intense study and preparation. Adjustments in agricultural strategies, water management policies, and disaster preparedness plans are just a few areas where the effects of these changes will be keenly felt, highlighting the intricate dance between human activity and the natural environment.
