El Nino Waning, La Nina to Develop in Second Half of 2024
The United States government weather forecaster recently announced that following a strong El Nino year, the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could emerge in the second half of 2024. This potential development marks a significant shift in weather dynamics across the globe, affecting numerous countries and their agricultural sectors.
La Nina’s influence typically results in higher precipitation levels in regions such as Australia, South-east Asia, and India. Conversely, it tends to bring drier conditions to the grain and oilseed-producing areas of the Americas. This fluctuation in weather patterns plays a crucial role in the production of essential crops, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, among others.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) highlighted that the current El Nino weather pattern, which has brought hot and dry conditions to Asia and heavier than usual rains to parts of the Americas, is expected to transition to neutral conditions between April and June 2024. Moreover, the CPC’s monthly forecast suggests a 55 percent chance of La Nina conditions developing between June and August of the same year.
According to Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI, “La Nina is likely to affect the production of wheat and corn in the US, and soybean and corn in Latin America, including Brazil.” The cyclical nature of El Nino and La Nina events significantly impacts global agriculture, influencing food prices and availability.
Last year, the impact of weather patterns on agriculture was evident, as India, the world’s largest rice supplier, imposed restrictions on rice exports following a poor monsoon season. Additionally, wheat production in Australia, the second-largest exporter of the crop, experienced a decline. The cultivation of palm oil and rice in South-east Asia also suffered due to insufficient rainfall.
An official with the India Meteorological Department commented on the potential benefits of La Nina for the Indian subcontinent, stating, “The development of La Nina is beneficial for the Indian monsoon. Typically, the monsoon delivers abundant rainfall during La Nina years.” In India, the monsoon season from June to September is crucial for the country’s economy, particularly for agriculture. Nearly 70 percent of the rainfall needed to irrigate crops and replenish water reservoirs occurs during this period, highlighting the significant impact of climatic patterns on agricultural productivity and food security.
As the possibility of a La Nina event in the latter half of 2024 becomes more likely, nations around the globe are closely monitoring these forecasts to prepare for the potential agricultural challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. The cyclical nature of these weather patterns underscores the need for robust planning and adaptive strategies in the agriculture sector to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on food production and supply chains.
