Inflation Eases to 3.4% in February but Underlying Price Growth Remains Strong
The Irish economy saw a decrease in inflation to 3.4% in February, down from a 4.1% annual rate in January, offering some relief to households amid ongoing economic challenges. Despite this decline, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, stood firm at 4.6%. Additionally, prices saw a 1% increase on a monthly basis in February after a drop of 1.3% in the preceding month.
The decline in headline inflation for three straight months highlights a broader softening of pricing pressures, attributed in part to decreasing energy costs on the global stage. However, with core inflation dictated by the persistent rise in service sector prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) signals a cautious stance towards reducing interest rates until a more definitive downturn in core inflation is observed.
This caution stems from concerns around wages, as elevated pay growth, fueled by employees seeking to reclaim real income levels, might prolong inflationary pressures beyond the ECB’s comfort zone of a 2% target rate.
Breaking down the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), noticeable sectors driving the current statistics came to light. For instance, sectors like alcoholic beverages and tobacco indicated a slight decrease of 0.7%, alongside communications, which dipped by 0.3% when compared to January figures. These were the only sectors to record a month-on-month decline.
Contrastingly, substantial price hikes were noted in clothing and footwear, recording a 3.4% rise, and transport, which went up by 3%. The surge in clothing and footwear pricing has been attributed to the post-sales recovery phase.
On an annual scale, a significant downturn was observed in the cost of electricity and gas, dropping by 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, signaling a reprieve from the initial shock of soaring prices influenced by these utilities. However, mortgage interest costs spiraled almost 28% higher year-on-year, mirroring the ripple effect of the ECB’s interest rate adjustments.
Although acknowledging a slow but steady descent in annual inflation rates to below 5% for only the fourth occasion since September 2021, the CSO presented a glimmer of optimism in the form of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP, facilitating eurozone-wide comparisons by excluding variables like mortgage interest repayments, placed Irish inflation at a more moderate 2.2% in February. This adjustment illustrates the differential impact of rising interest rates, which are excluded from the HICP calculus, casting a different light on Ireland’s inflation landscape amid fluctuating economic indicators.
