Coking Coal Imports from Russia at 5-Year High, Australian Share Drops
India has witnessed a significant shift in the source of its coking coal imports, with purchases from Russia hitting a five-year high in the April – June period (Q1), totaling 2.02 million tonnes. This rise comes at the expense of traditional suppliers such as Australia, whose share of the Indian coking coal market has dipped to a five-year low of 55 percent, amounting to 8.54 million tonnes.
Despite Australia remaining the top supplier, its steadily declining share in Indian imports highlights a changing dynamic in the global coking coal market. The United States follows as the second-largest supplier, albeit with a slight 2.5 percent year-on-year reduction in shipments to India.
Interestingly, the proportion of Russian coking coal imports to India has seen a consistent increase, growing from 9 percent to 13 percent of the total imports between the first quarters of fiscal years 2021 and 2025. This growth equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 percent, with shipments from Russia in the recent fiscal quarter surging 45 percent year-on-year, as indicated by market research data from BigMint. Russia’s gain is primarily at the expense of other suppliers like Mozambique and Canada.
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, India’s total coking coal imports stood at 15.49 million tonnes, marking a modest increase of approximately 4 percent year-on-year. As the world’s second-largest crude steel producer, India’s demand for coking coal is unmatched, highlighting its pivotal role as a major importer of this crucial steel-making resource.
Adapting to Market Changes
A blend of price volatility and the necessity to adapt furnaces has driven Indian steel mills to diversify their coking coal sources. From dominating shares in earlier years, Australian supplies have drastically reduced. “Steel mills have progressively explored new countries for securing coking coal sources,” remarked a Steel Ministry official, shedding light on India’s evolving procurement strategy which now includes potential shipments from countries like Mongolia.
The Indian government is also considering a unique procurement strategy termed “one nation one buying of coking coal.” This initiative aims to establish a consortium combining the efforts of the Centre and various steel companies to streamline the purchase of coking coal. This proposal, however, is still in the discussion phase, with some steel mills deliberating their participation.
Price Fluctuations
The volatility in coking coal prices has been a notable factor, with values touching around $221 per tonne on July 26, marking the lowest point in nearly a year. According to Keith Tan, Associate Regional Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, this decline is attributed to diminished demand from key steel and coke producers across India, Southeast Asia, and China. Factors such as the seasonal downturn in steel demand due to monsoons in India and China, coupled with a surplus of steel in international markets, have exerted downward pressure on prices.
The benchmark for hot-rolled-coil (HRC) prices in Mumbai was noted at approximately ₹50,200 per tonne during the same timeframe, indicating a slight recovery from earlier rates but still showcasing a decline from the previous month’s figures. Such price movements highlight the ongoing adjustments and challenges within the global steel and coking coal markets as suppliers and buyers navigate through fluctuating demand and supply dynamics.
