IMF Draws Link Between India, China; Says Public Investment Made Vital Contribution
In its insightful analysis encapsulated within the “Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shone a light on the pivotal roles that public investment has played in buoying the economies of emerging markets, notably spotlighting China and India for their contributions. This revelation comes amidst an economic landscape where these nations have predominantly seen growth being fuelled by robust private demand.
The report outlines how countries across the region have grappled with subdued export demand, a situation partly attributed to a shift in demand dynamics from goods to services following the COVID-19 pandemic. An exception in this trend has been technology products from advanced Asian economies, which saw a spike in demand, particularly in high-end semiconductors driven by applications in artificial intelligence towards the fourth quarter.
Upon revising its outlook for Asia, the IMF has presented a cautiously optimistic view of the region’s economic trajectory. It states that while the Asia-Pacific area is gearing up for a slowdown from 5% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, the region remains a beacon of dynamism on the global stage, contributing approximately 60% to worldwide growth. This resilience is further bolstered by a swift pace of disinflation, marking the Asia-Pacific not only by its significant economic activities but also by its strategic positioning encompassing East Asia, South Asia, and Oceania.
In an evaluation of sectoral performance across economies, the report highlights a stronger showing in the services sector as against industrial activities among emerging markets, while advanced economies experienced a reversal with industrial production gathering steam towards the year’s end. Specifically, China’s economic recovery post-reopening faced hurdles, notably with a deepening correction in the property sector marked by declining housing starts and sales. Despite these challenges, China managed to post a growth of 5.2% in 2023, slightly above earlier forecasts, aided in part by a substantial fiscal stimulus package announced in October which is expected to boost activity into 2024.
The IMF posits a “soft landing” for the Asia region, underpinned by lower inflation rates that afford central banks greater leeway to tailor monetary policies to domestic conditions rather than foreign policy movements such as those by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This flexibility comes against the backdrop of an expected economic slowdown over the next two years, with growth anticipated to dip to 4.3% in 2025 from 5% in 2023.
Key headwinds include a structural slowdown in China, especially with ongoing corrections in its property sector. The broader region remains sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices and potential trade disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The outlook does hold a silver lining, however, with growth in Asia and the Pacific in 2024 projected to temper slightly to 4.5%, a downward adjustment that nonetheless reflects a positive revision relative to earlier projections. This optimism is partly attributable to better-than-expected performances in the latter half of 2023, with fiscal stimuli, notably in China, propelling public spending and investment as significant growth drivers. In India, investment continues to play a crucial role in propelling the economy forward, underscoring the critical importance of public investment in sustaining growth across the region.
As the economic landscape continues to evolve, the IMF’s insights provide valuable foresight into the underlying dynamics shaping Asia and the Pacific’s path forward. With public investment at the heart of growth strategies in powerhouse economies like China and India, the region’s economic outlook, although tempered with caution, holds promising potential for resilient expansion.
