For the first time in seven years, Europe’s road freight spot rates have dipped below contract rates, reflecting a shift in the freight market dynamics. The descent of spot rates below contract rates has been attributed to a decrease in industrial demand, while an uptick in contract rates has been spurred by new emission tolls and an overall increase in costs. Key freight routes from Germany to major European cities have witnessed this inversion in pricing.
The fourth-quarter European Road Freight Spot Rate Benchmark Index registered at 123.8, marking a downturn from the previous quarter and a significant drop from the same period last year. Meanwhile, the Contract Rate Benchmark Index slightly increased, indicating a trending separation between spot and contract rates.
Upply’s CEO highlighted a burgeoning opportunity for shippers to leverage lower spot rates at the outset of 2024 amidst falling European demand and cost unpredictability for road transport operators. The reduction in consumption, induced by inflation, acted as a catalyst for the decline of spot rates. However, as economic factors have stabilized, production has adjusted to align with lower demand levels, particularly noticeable in countries like Germany, which is experiencing diminished international competitiveness.
This readjustment in industrial output, coupled with the ongoing reduction in consumer demand, continues to exert downward pressure on spot rates by increasing capacity. Moreover, the costs associated with truck ownership and operation have surged, further complicating the financial landscape for transport operators. The implementation of new emission-based tolls in Germany exemplifies a significant cost driver, expected to notably influence contract rates going forward. The lack of adequate infrastructure for emission-free vehicles exacerbates this issue, hinting at an impending rise in longer-term rates passed onto customers through contracts.
