Xinhua Commentary: “Peak China” Rhetoric Untenable in Face of Chinese Economy’s Resilience
In recent discussions on global economic trends, a narrative suggesting that China’s economic prominence might have reached its zenith has surfaced in some Western dialogues. This “Peak China” rhetoric posits that the nation is grappling with a confluence of challenges, including a deteriorating external environment, increased geopolitical risks, a trend of foreign capital retreat, and a realignment of global supply chains. Nonetheless, a closer examination of China’s economic indicators and strategic initiatives presents a vastly different picture, underscoring the resilience and adaptability of the Chinese economy.
The China-Europe Railway Express (CRE), a pivotal project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), exemplifies this resilience. Despite global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent Red Sea crisis, the demand for CRE’s freight services has surged, connecting cities like Duisburg, Germany, directly with China and facilitating robust trade flows. This blossoming of trade and cooperation underlines the global recognition of the BRI as a significant driver of economic growth and a testament to China’s unwavering global economic integration.
Contrary to the “Peak China” narrative, the country’s efforts in attracting foreign investment have been commendable, even in the face of global economic headwinds. While a slight year-on-year dip was observed, China attracted approximately 150 billion U.S. dollars in foreign investment in 2023, a figure only surpassed by the record-high levels of 2021 and 2022. This resilience in foreign investment is particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of a decline in global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), as noted by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Further bolstering this narrative of resilience is China’s focus on optimizing the structure of foreign investment, particularly in high-tech industries, which saw a significant influx of investments in 2023. Multinational corporations such as Airbus and BASF are expanding their operations within China, signaling continued confidence in China’s market and its role as an essential hub in global supply and value chains. Such expansions contradict the notion of an economic decline and instead highlight China’s role as an attractive destination for high-tech investment and innovation.
Moreover, despite facing unilateral measures and geopolitical challenges, China’s trade performance remains robust, with its position as the “world’s factory” unchallenged. The country has shown remarkable adaptability by becoming the world’s top automobile exporter, a milestone achievement that reflects the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing on the global stage.
In response to external challenges, China has underscored its commitment to further opening up its economy to the world, exemplified by lifting restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and introducing unilateral visa-free policies for countries like Germany and France. Such measures, rooted in a philosophy of inclusive globalization and opposition to protectionism, not only enhance China’s economic openness but also strengthen its economic ties with regions and countries around the globe.
China continues to champion the Belt and Road Initiative and other cooperative frameworks, ensuring its economic relations with ASEAN, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership countries, and Africa remain vibrant. The third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation illustrated China’s proactive stance in fostering global partnerships, achieving numerous outcomes that promise to propel economic collaboration to new heights.
In summary, the narrative of “Peak China” lacks credence when weighed against the evidence of China’s enduring economic resilience and strategic adaptability. Through high-level opening up, unwavering commitments to global cooperation, and an indomitable spirit in face of challenges, China’s trajectory remains one of growth and influence, far from the purported peak.
