Nigeria is currently on the cusp of what could be major nationwide protests sparked by severe economic difficulties. The looming demonstrations have prompted both political leaders and the army to caution the populace against participating. However, organizers argue that the government’s shortcomings leave them with no alternative but to take to the streets.
As the country prepares for the protests set to commence on Thursday, comparisons are drawn to similar protests in Kenya, which successfully compelled the government to revoke newly introduced taxes. However, the potential scale and impact of the demonstrations in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, remain uncertain.
At the heart of the unrest is Nigeria’s gravest cost-of-living crisis in decades, precipitated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy reforms introduced last year. The discontinuation of fuel subsidies and the removal of currency controls have resulted in a tripling of petrol prices alongside a significant inflation spike. Despite the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund endorsing these measures as necessary for the economic revival of the country, their implementation has severely affected the Nigerian populace. Food inflation has skyrocketed past 40 percent, leading to widespread hunger, particularly in the northern regions of the country.
Analysts are divided on the potential reach and intensity of the upcoming protests. Some draw parallels with the Kenyan situation, emphasizing shared grievances and the influential role of youth activists on social media, who have rallied under the banners “EndBadGovernanceinNigeria” and “RevolutionNow”. Others, however, point to the subdued response to Tinubu’s reforms thus far and the trepidation stemming from previous crackdowns on demonstrations, suggesting that a large-scale mobilization might be less likely.
Despite threats from authorities targeting young people in particular, several activist groups have vowed to proceed with peaceful rallies. This insistence comes even as two young organizers refuted claims by authorities that the protests are being infiltrated by violent groups, setting the stage for what some fear could be a heavy-handed government response.
The national response to the call for protests is mixed, with many expressing concerns about the potential for violence or the economic cost of participating. In spite of the hardships, some, like Patience, a 27-year-old corn seller and mother, express a desire for change but feel torn between protesting and the need to provide for their families.
The dire economic condition is notably severe in the predominantly Muslim north, where religious leaders have advised against participation in the rallies. Meanwhile, in cities like Kano, there is palpable support for the demonstrations, with individuals like Mansir, a 32-year-old teacher, prepared to defy religious admonitions against protesting.
The government’s response to the burgeoning protest movement has been multifaceted. On one end, officials have promised economic alleviations such as a significant increase in the minimum wage and measures aimed at hunger alleviation. On the other, security forces are gearing up for a robust presence during the demonstrations, with over 4,000 officers to be deployed in Abuja alone. President Tinubu and the army have issued stern warnings against the escalation of protests, emphasizing the need for caution to avoid chaos.
Nigeria’s history with protests speaks to the potential risks involved. The #EndSARS movement in 2020, initially focused on police brutality but evolving into broader anti-government protests, ended in a tragic crackdown by security forces. The government and army have faced international criticism for their handling of the Lekki toll gate incident, where soldiers allegedly shot dead at least 10 demonstrators, charges they have consistently denied.
As Nigeria stands at a crossroads, the coming days will be crucial in determining the path the country takes – whether towards meaningful dialogue and reform or further unrest and division.
