TWO YEARS LATER: Africa feels the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
On February 24th, 2022, a significant escalation occurred in an already tense situation, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified a conflict that had begun in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. This war, ongoing still, has inflicted deep scars on both involved nations and its repercussions are felt worldwide.
The war, while centered in Europe, carries consequences that ripple across the globe, deeply affecting even distant nations in various aspects including food security, economic stability, and humanitarian conditions. African nations such as Zambia among others have been particularly hard hit by these aftereffects.
In Somalia, a country far removed from the Ukrainian conflict, the invasion’s impact is seen in a dire humanitarian situation. As of September 2023, data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) indicated that 3.7 million people, 22% of the country’s population, were battling acute food insecurity. Contributing factors include adverse weather conditions such as below-average rainfall, and insufficient humanitarian aid. However, the crisis has been exacerbated by Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, with both Russia and Ukraine previously being major grain suppliers to Somalia. The invasion led to critical shortages, escalating the threat of famine in a country already vulnerable and thus marking the worst food insecurity experienced in 30 years.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) reports that African nations, on the whole, spend more than $75 billion annually to import over 100 million metric tons of cereals. In 2020, 15 African countries imported more than half their wheat from either Russia or Ukraine, and six relied on these two for over 70% of their wheat intake. The conflict has led to a grain shortfall of roughly 30 million tons and a sharp increase in costs across the continent.
This situation has spurred a 23.9% rise in staple food prices across Africa between 2020 and 2022, as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), marking the steepest increase since the 2008 global financial crisis and exacerbating food insecurity issues.
Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine’s significant roles in the global oil and gas markets mean that the invasion’s effects extend to energy prices, deeply impacting countries like Zambia. Following the invasion, Zambia saw a substantial 25% increase in petrol prices within a month, influenced by global oil price surges and local currency depreciation. Since then, fuel prices in Zambia have escalated by 41%, affecting consumers who are already battling inflated costs of living, including food, electricity, and transport.
Economists express concerns that persistent conflict could result in continual price increases, further straining consumers. The socio-economic impacts on countries like Zambia are profound, highlighting vulnerabilities to global market fluctuations and the challenges faced in fostering economic growth and reducing poverty.
The repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine thus serve as a poignant reminder of our interconnected global economy and the disproportionate challenges borne by economically disadvantaged nations in Africa and beyond. The scenario in Zambia and similar countries depicts a broader narrative of struggle and resilience amidst global turmoil, underscoring the far-reaching implications of conflicts that, on the surface, may seem distant and unrelated.
