IMF Lowers Nigeria’s 2024 GDP Growth Expectations
In a noteworthy update impacting Nigeria’s economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its forecast, projecting a slower pace for the nation’s economic growth. The IMF, in its recent publication “Global Economy in a Sticky Spot,” has revised Nigeria’s real GDP growth for 2024 to 3.1 percent, a slight decrease from the previously estimated 3.3 percent in April.
The revision of Nigeria’s GDP growth projection is attributed to performance that fell short of expectations in the first quarter of the year. This development places Nigeria in a more precarious position within the global economy, reflecting challenges that could influence its future economic landscape.
Moreover, the ripple effects of Nigeria’s adjusted growth forecast extend to the broader region, with the IMF also downscaling its economic growth projection for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 3.8 percent to 3.7 percent. This modification underscores the significant impact of Nigeria’s economic performance on the region, given its status as one of Africa’s largest economies. “The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year,” the IMF report emphasized.
Despite these adjustments for Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF’s growth projections for other substantial economies within Africa remain unchanged, with forecasts holding at 0.9 percent in 2024 and 1.2 percent in 2025.
However, it’s not only Nigeria facing a recalibration of economic expectations. Egypt, another key player in the continent’s economic arena, has seen revisions to its economic growth projections. Expected growth for Egypt in 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted by the IMF, with a decrease of 0.3 percentage points for both years, moving from an initial projection of 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent for 2024, and from 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent for 2025.
This update follows earlier adjustments in April 2024 when the IMF had initially set Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 3.3 percent for 2024. This latest downgrade arrives in the wake of Nigeria’s reported GDP contraction of 2.98 percent in the first quarter of 2024, as declared by the National Bureau of Statistics. The contraction is primarily attributed to economic adversities plaguing the country, setting the stage for cautious observation of Nigeria’s fiscal policies and economic strategies moving forward.
As global economic conditions evolve and domestic challenges persist, Nigeria’s pathway to achieving its revised growth targets will likely necessitate a comprehensive and adaptive approach. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for policymakers, investors, and analysts alike as they navigate the complexities of the global economy and its implications for Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
